Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
30th • 8-4-0
17%
Meta
+3.0
Perf
5.8
Surp
4.9
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Luiz Filipe Rodrigues (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Pedro Henrique Antonio (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Willian Gasparin (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Raphael Barrese (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 32:68
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Saulo Marx Paiva (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Vítor Farhat Fernandes (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Luís Mateus Bossi (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Hugo Ribeiro (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53
30:70
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs VITOR MILIONI (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 32:68
30:70
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Caio Mafra (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 32:68
R11
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Rodrigo Canejo (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Pedro Ugioni (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
17% (2/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.8 total deviation
Difficulty
4.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Huntsman | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R9 | Jarl Vetreiði | 30% | Loss |
| R10 | Jarl Vetreiði | 30% | Loss |
| R11 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Win |
44th • 7-5-0
42%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
4.8
Surp
3.3
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Max Dieckmann (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Geraldo Amorim (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 80:20
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Claudio Rosse Pandolfi (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Rafael Sarubo (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Rafael Fabris (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Lucas Nathan Barbosa de Oliveira (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
80:20
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Lucas Navarro (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 80:20
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Pedro Henrique Antonio (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 43:57
30:70
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Caio Mafra (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 32:68
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Daniel Preciado Espitia (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
R11
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs João Pedro Mossarelli Mofatto (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
30:70
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Ignacio Rodríguez Villasuso (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
42% (5/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.8 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 80% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, Huntsman | 45% | Loss |
| R9 | Jarl Vetreiði | 30% | Loss |
| R10 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R11 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Jarl Vetreiði | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
3.6
Surp
1.9
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Charles Eduardo (Unknown)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Rafael Augusto Belo Silva (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57
Round 3: Loss vs Heitor Martins (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Thomás Penchel (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Ricardo de Campos Dorini (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Lívia Pejon (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 33:67
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Isabella Bregensk (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 80% | Loss |
| R4 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.7
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs João Pedro Mafra Vilasbôas Rodrigues (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
Round 2: Win vs Gustavo Thunder_red (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Gustavo Vacilotto (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Roberto Oliveira (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Isabella Bregensk (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Marcos Rogerio Silva (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.3
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Felipe Samberg (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 43:57
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs IGOR MARREIRO LUCENA (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Augusto Pinho (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs André Rafael Chagas Godoy (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Gustavo Rogê (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Rodolfo Xavier (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Huntsman | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.3
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Thyago Bumussa (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs João Pedro Mafra Vilasbôas Rodrigues (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
Round 4: Win vs Ricardo Albuquerque (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Vítor Farhat Fernandes (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.4
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Diorge Brognara (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Round 2: Win vs Matheus Nunes Lino da Silva (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Fernandes Andrade (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs YURI PIMENTEL (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Luiz Bretas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.