Arakni, Marionette
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 7-2-0
78%
Meta
+2.4
Perf
4.0
Surp
3.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Dániel Komjáti (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Christian Drabusenigg (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Michael Pedersen (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 62:38
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Luka Leko (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Denis Medjic (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Konrad Weiss (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Tobias Hartfiel (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Tobias Hartfiel (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Jan Kučera (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
78% (7/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R9 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Loss |
11th • 5-2-0
71%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.6
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Robert Gupfinger (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Denis Medjic (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Christoph Lengauer (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jean Luka Zorko (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 76:24
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Manfred Eregger (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Valentin Varga (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Tigran Grigorian (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
23rd • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.7
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jakub Kouřil (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Lukas Vogelgsang ()
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs axilleas siskopoulos (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Manuel Hoffmann (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Botond Szujó (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 66:34
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Martin Holík (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Denis Medjic (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | 50% | Win | |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
40th • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.5
Surp
3.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tigran Grigorian (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Vitalij Zeiser (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Miroslav Košař (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Thomas Denk (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Dániel Komjáti (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jakub Kouřil (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
49th • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Zdeněk Matura (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Vincent Weinzierl (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Leon Schmidtke (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Ognjen Marinkovic (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Christoph Lengauer (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Erik Ganser (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Viktor Nelipovich (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
61st • 2-5-0
86%
Meta
-1.8
Perf
3.3
Surp
0.9
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Martin Hechtberger (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Lewis Miller (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Zdeněk Matura (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Michael Neugebauer (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Maximilian Reichl (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Adam Šídlo (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 65:35
Round 7: Loss vs Jakob Indra (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
50%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.7
Surp
0.9
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Leo Matuška (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Adam Tuček (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Brandon Turner (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Théo Crevon (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 66:34
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Miroslav Košař (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs axilleas siskopoulos (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Huntsman | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-5-0
67%
Meta
-2.0
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.4
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Michael Pedersen (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Reichhart (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Philippe Cabero (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Max Karstenberg (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Stefan Triebl (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44
Round 6: Win vs Talon Stradley (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 40% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.