Verdance, Thorn of the Rose at Battle Hardened: Vienna
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
9 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
19th • 5-2-0
71%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
2.9
Surp
2.4
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Held (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Valentin Varga (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Thomas Denk (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Andreas Mitterlechner (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
85:15
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Yu fan Liao (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 85:15
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Tibor Csonka (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
75:25
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Florian Stangassinger (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 77:23
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 85% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 75% | Win |
20th • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.7
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Théo Crevon (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40
85:15
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Yu fan Liao (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 85:15
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Florian Stangassinger (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 77:23
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tom Tucek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Christian Katrenčin (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 69:31
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Hammer (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Güntekin Koc (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 85% | Win |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, Huntsman | 40% | Loss |
22nd • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.4
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Maximilian Reichl (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47
Round 2: Win vs Michael Neugebauer (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
85:15
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Yu fan Liao (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 85:15
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
75:25
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Luka Leko (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 73:27
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Cosmo Hahn (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 31:69
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs David Schramm (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 85% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 75% | Win |
| R6 | Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
25th • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.5
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Markus Reichhart (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Martin Hajko (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 58:42
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Maximilian Reichl (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tibor Csonka (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Teo Matuška (Dash I/O) - Expected: 54:46
75:25
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Zsigmond Komondi (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 77:23
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Adam Tuček (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 75% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Huntsman | 40% | Loss |
31st • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.0
Diff
90:10
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Bence Androkity (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 90:10
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Maximilian Reichl (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Elias David Leiva Peters (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Valentin Varga (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Manfred Eregger (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Sergiu Morar (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 90% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
34th • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.4
Diff
90:10
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Talon Stradley (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 90:10
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jakub Kouřil (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
Round 3: Loss vs Botond Szujó (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Vitalij Zeiser (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Philipp Reiter (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Zdeněk Matura (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
85:15
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Andrej Adamčák (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 85:15
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 90% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 85% | Win |
44th • 3-3-1
43%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.5
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Andreas Reling (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Daniel Kovacs (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs Viktor Nelipovich (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jakub Kouřil (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jakob Indra (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 49:51
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Thomas Preyer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
Round 7: Loss vs Yu fan Liao (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 85:15, favorite upset
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Draw |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 85% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.8
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Ognjen Marinkovic (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Thomas Denk (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Maximilian Klein (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Cosmo Hahn (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 31:69
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Manuel Hoffmann (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.9
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Raphael Nero (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Brüssau (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs András Kovács (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Brandon Turner (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.