Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.1
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Hal Nunn (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Timothy Hickman (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 49:51
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs francisco guerrero (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Morgan Key (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41
90:10
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Karl Massera (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 92:8
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Maxwell Mitchell (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 38:62
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Kenneth Amers (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 90% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
14%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
3.2
Surp
3.0
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs CODY READY (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58
Round 2: Win vs Anthony Camacho (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ryu San jose (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55
80:20
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Raul Sierra (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 78:22
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 33:67
Round 6: Win vs Patrick McKenna (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Johnny Kunz (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
14% (1/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Huntsman | 45% | Win |
dropped • 2-5-0
29%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.8
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Alan Rogers (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 40:60
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Charles Poe (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 33:67
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jake Morin (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Johnny Kunz (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 46:54
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Clayton (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 59:41
Round 6: Win vs Keanan McClellan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Sean Glancy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Huntsman | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.7
Diff
90:10
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jesus Meraz (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 92:8
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tyler Horspool (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 33:67
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jesus Barraza (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 47:53
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs John Zapata (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs David Avezov (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 90% | Win |
| R2 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
50%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
1.6
Surp
1.0
Diff
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Raul Sierra (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 78:22
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 33:67
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Hal Nunn (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Alli Wheeler (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.6
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jesus Barraza (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Zachary Wallach (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nathan Speck (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Hal Nunn (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.