Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at Battle Hardened: Phoenix 2025
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
3.0
Surp
2.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Hal Nunn (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Timothy Hickman (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs francisco guerrero (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 55:45
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Morgan Key (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 46:54
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Karl Massera (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Maxwell Mitchell (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 29:71
25:75
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Kenneth Amers (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 24:76
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
29%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
3.0
Surp
3.7
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs CODY READY (Dash I/O) - Expected: 18:82
Round 2: Win vs Anthony Camacho (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ryu San jose (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 25:75
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Raul Sierra (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 69:31
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
Round 6: Win vs Patrick McKenna (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Johnny Kunz (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
3.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 20% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
dropped • 2-5-0
43%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Alan Rogers (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Charles Poe (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jake Morin (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Johnny Kunz (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Clayton (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 31:69
Round 6: Win vs Keanan McClellan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Sean Glancy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.4
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jesus Meraz (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tyler Horspool (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Round 3: Win vs Jesus Barraza (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs John Zapata (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 22:78
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs David Avezov (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 22:78
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 25% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 20% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
75%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.9
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Raul Sierra (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 69:31
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Hal Nunn (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Alli Wheeler (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
1.7
Surp
1.3
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jesus Barraza (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 24:76
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Zachary Wallach (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 25:75
Round 3: Win vs Nathan Speck (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Hal Nunn (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 30% | Win |
| R4 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.