Kano, Dracai of Aether at Battle Hardened: Phoenix 2025

Kano, Dracai of Aether

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jon Gibson

dropped • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jonathan Sanchez (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 61:39

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Raul Sierra (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 14:86, underdog victory

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jake Marohl (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Peyton Gage (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jordyn Denver (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.21
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	15%	Win	✗	0.86	1.23
R4	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.88
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Owen Keane

dropped • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.9

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mychael Gochee (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Maxwell Mitchell (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mark Smith (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kenneth Amers (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jacob West (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 71:29

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Max Noman ()

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ryu San jose (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.31
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.36
R6	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.22

Alan Rogers

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Xander Pumphrey (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alli Wheeler (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.