Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
5th • 5-3-0
25%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
4.0
Surp
2.3
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jon Gibson (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Dylan Wilhite (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40
Round 3: Win vs Brayden Mitchell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ronit Patel (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs CODY READY (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
25% (2/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 5-2-0
57%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
3.0
Surp
2.4
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Aaron Howard (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Brayden Mitchell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Owen Keane (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Brock Ullom (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jake Marohl (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs James Pack (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
75:25
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Karl Massera (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 74:26
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 75% | Win |
dropped • 5-2-0
57%
Meta
+1.7
Perf
3.5
Surp
3.4
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Zachary Wallach (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs francisco guerrero (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ronit Patel (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs CODY READY (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Martin Morford (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
Round 6: Win vs Brayden Mitchell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Brock Ullom (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
3.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R7 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.5
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Devin Chen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Hal Nunn (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 82:18
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Kent O’Neal (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Alex Conde (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Kenneth Amers (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs James Pack (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
29%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kenneth Amers (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Reina Alvizo (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57
Round 3: Win vs Aaron Howard (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Teriki Soliai (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
Round 6: Loss vs Suryan Bhatia (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jake Morin (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Loss |
| R7 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
80%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tader Kammeyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Justin Fernandes (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Thomas Adams (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Alex Conde (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36
Round 5: Loss vs Alli Wheeler (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-1
25%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.8
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Draw vs Timothy Hickman (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 70:30
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jon Gibson (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Miller (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
Round 4: Win vs Keanan McClellan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Draw |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
dropped • 0-2-0
0%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
0.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Gabriel Kammeyer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
Meta Fit
0% (0/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.