Verdance, Thorn of the Rose at Battle Hardened: Phoenix 2025

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

8 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Eric Dauernnheim

5th • 5-3-0

38%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jon Gibson (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dylan Wilhite (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 58:42

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brayden Mitchell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ronit Patel (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 25:75

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs CODY READY (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.17
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.19
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Win	✗	0.75	0.76
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.70
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R7	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mark Smith

dropped • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.2

Surp

3.0

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Aaron Howard (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brayden Mitchell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 25:75

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Owen Keane (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 39:61

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Brock Ullom (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jake Marohl (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs James Pack (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Karl Massera (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Win	✗	0.75	0.29
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.36
R5	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.68
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Othman Akel

dropped • 5-2-0

43%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.3

Surp

3.6

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Zachary Wallach (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs francisco guerrero (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ronit Patel (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs CODY READY (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Martin Morford (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Brayden Mitchell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Brock Ullom (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.08
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.85
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.73
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.63

David Avezov

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Devin Chen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Hal Nunn (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 74:26

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 25:75

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kent O’Neal (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 25:75

80:20

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alex Conde (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 78:22

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kenneth Amers (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs James Pack (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.16
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.13
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.26
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.79

Patrick McKenna

dropped • 3-4-0

29%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kenneth Amers (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Reina Alvizo (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Aaron Howard (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Teriki Soliai (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 25:75

80:20

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Suryan Bhatia (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jake Morin (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Win	✗	0.75	0.87
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.64
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-
R7	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

John Zapata

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tader Kammeyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Justin Fernandes (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 25:75

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Thomas Adams (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alex Conde (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 78:22

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Alli Wheeler (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.24
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.47
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.29
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-

Jonathan Sanchez

dropped • 1-2-1

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.4

Surp

2.0

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Timothy Hickman (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 77:23

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jon Gibson (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Miller (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Keanan McClellan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	75%	Draw	✓	0.77	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Win	✗	0.75	2.02

Ray Sopal

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 25:75

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gabriel Kammeyer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.