Battle Hardened: Phoenix 2025 - Cindra, Dracai of Retribution (CC)

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kenneth Amers

dropped • 5-2-0

43%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.3

Surp

3.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Patrick McKenna (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs James Pack (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Owen Keane (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tyler Horspool (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs David Avezov (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Scott Corell (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.57
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.68
R5	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.71
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.92

Jesus Barraza

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Javier Calderon (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kent O’Neal (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alex Conde (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Miller (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Hal Nunn (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Johnny Kunz (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.15
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.54
R5	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Teriki Soliai

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Raul Sierra (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Devin Chen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Patrick McKenna (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Evan Bridges (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Devin Chen

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Avezov (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gus Enger (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Teriki Soliai (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.