Prism, Awakener of Sol at Battle Hardened: Phoenix 2025

Prism, Awakener of Sol

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ronit Patel

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Miller (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Maxim Lukin (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Othman Akel (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Colin Eriksen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.22
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.29
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.42
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Enrique Castro

dropped • 2-2-1

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Charles Poe (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mychael Gochee (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Clayton (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sean Glancy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Vance Jones (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Draw	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.44
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.75
R5	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Reina Alvizo

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Henry Gomez (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Patrick McKenna (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mychael Gochee (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Maxwell Mitchell (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nicholas Koppean (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.28
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.49
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Shereena Decano

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dylan Wilhite (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Johnny Kunz (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Maxim Lukin (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Karl Massera (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs James Pack (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.44
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Raul Sierra

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 31:69

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Teriki Soliai (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jon Gibson (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 86:14, favorite upset

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Suryan Bhatia (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 31:69

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jake Morin (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.43
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	85%	Loss	✓	0.86	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R5	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.