Dorinthea Ironsong at Battle Hardened: Phoenix 2025

Dorinthea Ironsong

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Alli Wheeler

dropped • 5-1-1

57%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.9

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Liam Donnelly (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Clayton (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alan Rogers (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 51:49

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs John Zapata (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Draw vs Nicholas Koppean (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 34:66

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Vance Jones (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 77:23

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	80%	Loss	✓	0.79	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.43
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.31
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.56
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.23
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Draw	✗	0.34	-
R7	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.37

Mychael Gochee

dropped • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Owen Keane (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Enrique Castro (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Reina Alvizo (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Charles Poe (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 79:21

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Leonardo Ramirez (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

80:20

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Anthony Pham (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 79:21

80:20

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Gabriel Kammeyer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 79:21

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.35
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.19
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.64
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.28
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.33

Peyton Gage

dropped • 3-2-0

40%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.5

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nathan Speck (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Vore (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 30:70

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tyler Neice (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Anthony Pham (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 79:21

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jon Gibson (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.30
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.89
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.27
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Timothy Hickman

dropped • 1-3-1

60%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Jonathan Sanchez (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Scott Corell (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 51:49

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Evan Bridges (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Clayton (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 36:64

80:20

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Aaron Howard (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 79:21

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Draw	✗	0.30	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	80%	Loss	✓	0.79	-
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.33

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.