Dorinthea Ironsong at Battle Hardened: Phoenix 2025

Dorinthea Ironsong

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Alli Wheeler

dropped • 5-1-1

57%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.9

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Liam Donnelly (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Clayton (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 43:57

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alan Rogers (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs John Zapata (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Draw vs Nicholas Koppean (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 47:53

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Vance Jones (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.34
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Win	✗	0.77	1.51
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Draw	✗	0.47	-
R7	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Mychael Gochee

dropped • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Owen Keane (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Enrique Castro (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Reina Alvizo (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Charles Poe (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 81:19

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Leonardo Ramirez (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

80:20

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Anthony Pham (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 81:19

80:20

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Gabriel Kammeyer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 81:19

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.34
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.17
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.58
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.26
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.30

Peyton Gage

dropped • 3-2-0

40%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nathan Speck (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 43:57

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Vore (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 13:87

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tyler Neice (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 43:57

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Anthony Pham (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 81:19

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jon Gibson (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.24
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.72
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.24
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Timothy Hickman

dropped • 1-3-1

60%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Jonathan Sanchez (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 23:77

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Scott Corell (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Evan Bridges (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Clayton (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 43:57

80:20

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Aaron Howard (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 81:19

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Draw	✗	0.23	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.30

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.