Florian, Rotwood Harbinger at Battle Hardened: Phoenix 2025
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 6-3-0
67%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.7
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Vance Jones (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
85:15
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Peyton Gage (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 87:13
Round 3: Win vs Marcus Brown (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory
85:15
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Colin Eriksen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 83:17
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 20:80
75:25
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Ryu San jose (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 77:23
Round 7: Loss vs Maxwell Mitchell (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
75:25
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs CODY READY (Dash I/O) - Expected: 76:24
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 85% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 20% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 85% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 20% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 75% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
| R8 | Dash I/O | 75% | Win |
| R9 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.