Dash I/O at Battle Hardened: Phoenix 2025

Dash I/O

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

CODY READY

5th • 6-2-0

50%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.6

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Suryan Bhatia (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 82:18

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Henry Gomez (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tyler Horspool (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Othman Akel (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Justin Fernandes (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Joseph Freeh (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 34:66

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Eric Dauernnheim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

25:75

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Matthew Vore (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.04
R2	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.40
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.59
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.41
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.46
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.72
R8	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Martin Morford

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tyler Neice (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 71:29

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Marcus Brown (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 25:75

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Charles Poe (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Max Noman ()

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Othman Akel (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.10
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.44
R4	CC		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Tader Kammeyer

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs John Zapata (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs laureline kammeyer (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brett Bowden (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jesus Meraz (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Zachary Wallach (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.27
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.