Ira, Scarlet Revenger at Battle Hardened: Phoenix 2025

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Brock Ullom

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Johnny Kunz (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joseph Freeh (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alejandro Cuevas (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mark Smith (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Maxim Lukin (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jake Morin (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Othman Akel (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	30%	Win	✗	0.71	1.29
R6	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Jacob West

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.7

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Colin Eriksen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 20:80

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matt Hammer (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sean Glancy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brayden Mitchell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 57:43

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Owen Keane (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.27
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.48
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Morgan Key

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jon Steelsmith (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James Pack (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Liam Donnelly (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Scott Corell (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Gabriel Kammeyer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.53
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

laureline kammeyer

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Max Noman ()

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tader Kammeyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Legesse (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.