Battle Hardened: Phoenix 2025 - Ira, Scarlet Revenger (CC)

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Brock Ullom

dropped • 3-4-0

14%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Johnny Kunz (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joseph Freeh (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alejandro Cuevas (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mark Smith (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 38:62

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Maxim Lukin (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jake Morin (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Othman Akel (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

14% (1/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.18
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.23
R6	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	25%	Win	✗	0.73	1.63
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Jacob West

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.7

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Colin Eriksen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 24:76

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matt Hammer (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sean Glancy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brayden Mitchell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Owen Keane (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.29
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.42
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Morgan Key

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jon Steelsmith (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 67:33

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James Pack (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Liam Donnelly (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Scott Corell (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Gabriel Kammeyer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.12
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.49
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

laureline kammeyer

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Max Noman ()

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tader Kammeyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 51:49

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Legesse (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.