Fang, Dracai of Blades at Battle Hardened: Phoenix 2025
Fang, Dracai of Blades
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 3-3-1
71%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
3.7
Surp
1.3
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Matt Hammer (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
Round 2: Loss vs Liam Donnelly (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs Gabriel Kammeyer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kyle Dockum (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ryu San jose (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 32:68
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Clayton (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Aaron Howard (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 70% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 70% | Draw |
| R4 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 70% | Win |
dropped • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
2.5
Surp
2.0
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs francisco guerrero (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Alli Wheeler (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Enrique Castro (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Timothy Hickman (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Xander Pumphrey (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 69:31
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jacob Steimer (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Win |
dropped • 2-4-0
67%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.1
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Keanan McClellan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ronit Patel (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Shereena Decano (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Nicholas Koppean (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50
Round 5: Loss vs Brock Ullom (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Nathan Speck (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Loss |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Win |
dropped • 2-4-0
67%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.7
Surp
0.8
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Martin Morford (Dash I/O) - Expected: 29:71
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jon Steelsmith (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Peyton Gage (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs francisco guerrero (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Charles Poe (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29
Round 6: Loss vs Kent O’Neal (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 70% | Loss |
dropped • 1-5-0
67%
Meta
-2.1
Perf
2.7
Surp
0.3
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Peyton Gage (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ryu San jose (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 32:68
Round 3: Loss vs Javier Calderon (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Aaron Howard (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs francisco guerrero (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Maxim Lukin (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
25%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.6
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Shereena Decano (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58
Round 3: Win vs Daniel Bakhshpour (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
Round 4: Loss vs Joseph Freeh (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.4
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Karl Massera (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs laureline kammeyer (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 71:29
Round 4: Loss vs Gabriel Kammeyer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 70% | Loss |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 70% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.5
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Marcus Brown (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jesus Meraz (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
Round 3: Loss vs Gus Enger (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Vance Jones (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.