Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at Battle Hardened: Phoenix 2025
Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
1st • 9-1-0
90%
Meta
+3.4
Perf
4.4
Surp
4.2
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Teriki Soliai (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Alan Rogers (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 52:48
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Tran (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Liam Donnelly (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50
70:30
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Colin Eriksen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 72:28
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Justin Fernandes (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Eric Dauernnheim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Matthew Vore (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Maxwell Mitchell (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
90% (9/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
4.4 total deviation
Difficulty
4.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
| R10 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
80%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.1
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Andrew Clayton (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 68:32
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Othman Akel (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Scott Corell (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 45:55
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tyler Neice (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 68:32
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Nathan Speck (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 68:32
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.9
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Justin Fernandes (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Vance Jones (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Max Noman ()
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Evan Bridges (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Mychael Gochee (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Win |
| R3 | 50% | Loss | |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.9
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ronit Patel (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas Koppean (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jonathan Sanchez (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jesus Barraza (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
Round 5: Win vs Jesus Meraz (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 40% | Win |
dropped • 1-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 48:52
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Evan Bridges (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37
Round 3: Loss vs Dylan Wilhite (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.