Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X at Calling: Auckland 2025

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

21 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Hayden Dale

5th • 9-3-0

75%

Meta

+2.8

Perf

5.4

Surp

4.1

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Henry Groves (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dom Nappa (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Goessi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Lucas Oswald (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Cameron Hay (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Neveiah Tetuhi (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Alexander McCallum (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Oliver Berry (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Ryan Williams (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Hamish Morgan (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Amelia Hulin-Bobart (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Michael Collins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

75% (9/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.8 Wins (6.2 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.4 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.10
R2	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.10
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.35
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.42
R6	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.30
R7	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.71
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.50
R10	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.76
R11	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.84
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Jayden Allan

5th • 9-3-0

75%

Meta

+2.9

Perf

5.8

Surp

5.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs alisa qian (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Goessi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sean Delaney (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Keegan Walls (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Harry Boulton (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jude Wightman (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Anthony O’Hara (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 70:30

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Scott Mackenzie (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Shing Tsang (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Alexander McCallum (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

75% (9/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.8 total deviation

Difficulty

5.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.17
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.42
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.31
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.83
R9	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R10	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.10
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.86
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Andy Pham

dropped • 8-3-0

64%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

5.3

Surp

3.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Samuel Bates (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sean Delaney (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jude Wightman (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Goessi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jerry James (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Alexander McCallum (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Max Middleton (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Kuan Li (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Cayle Mccreath (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 48:52

80:20

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jonathan Luey (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 79:21

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Andrew Qi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

64% (7/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.11
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.12
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.27
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.45
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.45
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R9	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.87
R10	CC	Puffin, Hightail	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.32
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.25

Shing Tsang

dropped • 8-3-0

73%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

5.8

Surp

4.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Helen McCann (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Adam Torr (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Will Evans (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs CYK Lionel (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Damian Moss (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Max Middleton (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jacob Goessi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Amelia Hulin-Bobart (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Jayden Allan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Oliver Berry (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Ashton Dorsey (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

73% (8/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.11
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.19
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.29
R4	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.22
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.45
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.79
R8	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R9	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.96
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.25

Damian Moss

dropped • 7-4-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

5.1

Surp

3.0

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Taylah Wells (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 78:22

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lucas Ward (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Neveiah Tetuhi (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Shing Tsang (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jerry James (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Amelia Hulin-Bobart (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Kaiden Mann (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Hamish Morgan (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs David Marshall (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Kuan Li (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (11/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (6.2 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.03
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.13
R3	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.16
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.34
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.55
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R8	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.73
R9	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R10	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.06

Jerry James

dropped • 7-4-0

82%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

5.1

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Shaun Clark (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dr. Daniel McKay (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ben Dodd (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 71:29

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Qi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Andy Pham (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Damian Moss (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Joseph Darge (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Hamish Morgan (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Ethan Beam (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Kaiden Mann (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Alexander McCallum (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

82% (9/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.10
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.18
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.14
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.45
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.36
R8	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R9	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.61
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.91
R11	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Jordan Whitelock

dropped • 7-4-0

91%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

5.0

Surp

3.3

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jesse Brake (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 79:21

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Will Evans (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jack Steel (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Chris Bewley (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Collins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Digl Dixon (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Joshua Wellington (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Joseph Darge (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Spencer Horton (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Kuan Li (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

91% (10/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.03
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.26
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.36
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.77
R8	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.42
R9	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.49
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.96
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Kaiden Mann

dropped • 6-5-0

91%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

5.6

Surp

2.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sean Stanley (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Isaac Katsakis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs CYK Lionel (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kaan Cekli (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Gary Lynch (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Seb Hart (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Damian Moss (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Joshua Hayes (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Jerry James (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

91% (10/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.07
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.19
R3	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.36
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.34
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.55
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R8	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.02
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Cameron Hay

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Christopher Wade (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Pudding Tam (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joshua Wellington (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jad Zamerli (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Hayden Dale (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Oliver Berry (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.13
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.21
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.52
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.38
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Dr. Daniel McKay

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ethan Beam (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jerry James (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Seb Hart (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lawson Maric (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Adam Torr (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Danne Blomfield (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 73:27

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.11
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.76
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.57
R7	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.46

Seb Hart

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Grayson Ziogas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Oliver Berry (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dr. Daniel McKay (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 73:27

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Thomas Caserta (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kaiden Mann (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Andrew Qi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.17
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.26
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.87
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Chris Bewley

dropped • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.4

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs George Chew (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kaan Cekli (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ross Collett (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 84:16

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jordan Whitelock (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jared Fung (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 84:16

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Joseph Darge (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Barak Abitbol (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.10
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.11
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.18
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Jude Wightman

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 73:27

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Danne Blomfield (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andy Pham (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alexander McCallum (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Shaun Clark (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jayden Allan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.07
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.19
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.76
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Sam Smith

dropped • 1-6-0

71%

Meta

-2.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

0.7

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joseph Darge (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Taylah Wells (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kelvin Clarke (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs None (Unknown)

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Samuel Russell (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Helen McCann (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

David House

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Marshall (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jake mccormack (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Samuel Bates (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Robert Hall (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Danne Blomfield (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Lee Mackley (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.27
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.70
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.56
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

David Smith

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Masayuki Hori (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joseph Darge (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Anthony O’Hara (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jesse Brake (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 79:21

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Joshua Hayes (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58

80:20

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Michael Glover (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.13
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.23
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	CC	Puffin, Hightail	80%	Loss	✓	0.79	-

Kaan Cekli

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Casey Wilson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chris Bewley (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kaiden Mann (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Digl Dixon (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R6	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-

alisa qian

dropped • 2-2-1

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jayden Allan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Shaun Clark (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mae Jane Collett (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Megumi Hori (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58

80:20

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Taylah Wells (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 78:22

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Draw	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.00
R5	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.35

Harry Boulton

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.4

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jonathan Luey (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 79:21

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Clark (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Angus Schuler (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 48:52

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ben Dodd (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jayden Allan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.07
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.30
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

William Gibson

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jad Zamerli (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Taylah Wells (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 78:22

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Spencer Horton (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ethan Beam (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.18
R3	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Hemal Patel

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Barak Abitbol (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Henry Groves (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.