Rhinar, Reckless Rampage at Calling: Auckland 2025

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Manuel Solomon

dropped • 5-6-0

45%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

5.3

Surp

2.2

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mae Jane Collett (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Marshall (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lucinda Robertson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Samuel Bates (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ben Dodd (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs CYK Lionel (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Hamish Morgan (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Cayle Mccreath (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Joseph Darge (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Neveiah Tetuhi (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

R11

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

45% (5/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (5.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

5.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.13
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.30
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.32
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.43
R6	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R9	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R10	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R11	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Eugene C

dropped • 3-4-0

14%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jude Wightman (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Naomi Wang (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 47:53

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ethan Holland (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Seb Hart (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ben Wolffenbuttel (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Kaan Cekli (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Dr. Daniel McKay (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

14% (1/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.31
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.13
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Dexter Rei-Maynard

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joshua Wellington (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Samuel Bates (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Braiden Burne

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Yee (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Smith (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.