Arakni, Marionette at Calling: Auckland 2025 - Classic Constructed
Arakni, Marionette
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 4-3-0
29%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
3.6
Surp
3.8
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Seb Hart (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Christopher Wade (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Scott Mackenzie (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Shaun Clark (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jesse Brake (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
Round 7: Win vs Ashton Dorsey (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.3
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Keegan Walls (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Pudding Tam (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Isaac Katsakis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Seb Hart (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Patrick Darge (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Tom Debney (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
3.2
Surp
0.9
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Dexter Rei-Maynard (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 58:42
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 75:25
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Cameron Hay (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Dave Laffan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs CYK Lionel (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Qi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jordan Whitelock (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 2-5-0
86%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.1
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Hayden Dale (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Hemal Patel (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Casey Wilson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Christopher Gomez (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Tim Wolffenbuttel (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Luke Siriwardene (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Kelvin Clarke (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
50%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.6
Surp
0.7
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Cassandra Hancock (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Dave Laffan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Michael Collins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Dr. Daniel McKay (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ashton Dorsey (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Tom Debney (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.1
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Adam Torr (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ashton Dorsey (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Sean Stanley (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Henry Groves (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Samuel Bates (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.3
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Braiden Burne (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 58:42
Round 2: Loss vs Jordan Schroder (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Samuel Coffey (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.