Katsu, the Wanderer at Calling: Auckland 2025

Katsu, the Wanderer

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ross Collett

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.6

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Qi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Luke Siriwardene (Dash I/O) - Expected: 67:33

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chris Bewley (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 23:77

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Pudding Tam (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Mae Jane Collett (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Liam Fisher (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.16
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.76
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.66
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Jared Fung

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lucinda Robertson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Masayuki Hori (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jonathan Luey (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Samuel Coffey (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Chris Bewley (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 23:77

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.51
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.74
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-

Cassandra Hancock

dropped • 0-4-0

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lawson Maric (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Digl Dixon (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mickail Lim (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jake mccormack (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.