Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
9 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 7-4-0
91%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
4.6
Surp
2.4
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ross Collett (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 65:35
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Lee Mackley (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 66:34
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Anthony Ouellet (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 82:18
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jerry James (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Neveiah Tetuhi (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Joshua Wellington (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Seb Hart (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Michael Collins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57
60:40
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38
60:40
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Ethan Beam (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Andy Pham (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
91% (10/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (6.6 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R9 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R10 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R11 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 7-4-0
55%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
4.6
Surp
2.8
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Andy Pham (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Dexter Rei-Maynard (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 45:55
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs David House (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Manuel Solomon (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 45:55
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Christopher Gomez (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jonathan Luey (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 65:35
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Patrick Darge (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 68:32
80:20
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Anthony Ouellet (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 82:18
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
30:70
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Casey Wilson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
55% (6/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (6.0 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Puffin, Hightail | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Jarl Vetreiði | 70% | Win |
| R8 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R9 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R11 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
dropped • 6-5-0
64%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
5.5
Surp
3.3
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Will Evans (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Christopher Gomez (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Amelia Hulin-Bobart (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs bill huynh (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Lawson Maric (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jack Steel (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Grayson Ziogas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Angus Schuler (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57
Round 9: Loss vs David Marshall (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Scott Mackenzie (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Shing Tsang (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
64% (7/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
5.5 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R8 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R9 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Loss |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R11 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 6-5-0
73%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
5.6
Surp
2.6
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Gary Lynch (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jayden Allan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Hayden Dale (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Andy Pham (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jad Zamerli (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Scott Mackenzie (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Shing Tsang (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
Round 8: Loss vs Ethan Beam (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
30:70
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Oliver Berry (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Angus Schuler (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57
Round 11: Loss vs Jonathan Luey (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Meta Fit
73% (8/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
5.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
| R8 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Loss |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R10 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R11 | Puffin, Hightail | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 5-6-0
73%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
4.5
Surp
1.3
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Isaac Katsakis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Mark Phillips (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Samuel Russell (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Amelia Hulin-Bobart (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs David Smith (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
70:30
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Liam Fisher (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Cayle Mccreath (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 68:32
30:70
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
60:40
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Kaiden Mann (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
Round 10: Loss vs Digl Dixon (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Neveiah Tetuhi (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
73% (8/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (5.9 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R7 | Jarl Vetreiði | 70% | Win |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R9 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
| R10 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Loss |
| R11 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 5-5-0
80%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
4.3
Surp
1.6
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Patrick Darge (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 68:32
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Kuan Li (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Grayson Ziogas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Lucas Ward (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Joseph Darge (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 70:30
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jacob Goessi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Neveiah Tetuhi (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Jayden Allan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Casey Wilson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Ashton Dorsey (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
80% (8/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (5.4 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
| R9 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.4
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Oliver Berry (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Megumi Hori (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 3: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Unknown)
Round 5: Loss vs Pudding Tam (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Lucinda Robertson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Ben Wolffenbuttel (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 68:32
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Jarl Vetreiði | 70% | Win |
dropped • 2-4-1
71%
Meta
-2.0
Perf
3.3
Surp
0.9
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Shing Tsang (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Spencer Horton (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Chang (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 74:26
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jack Steel (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Robert Hall (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57
70:30
R6 CC
Round 6: Draw vs Adam Torr (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 68:32
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Sam Smith (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Jarl Vetreiði | 70% | Draw |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
dropped • 0-4-0
75%
Meta
-2.0
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Sean Delaney (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Sam Davison (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Luke Siriwardene (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs alisa qian (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.