Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Calling: Auckland 2025

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Anthony O’Hara

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.5

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Anthony Ouellet (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mickail Lim (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David Smith (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Spencer Horton (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56

80:20

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Angus Schuler (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ryan Williams (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jayden Allan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.09
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.49
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.68
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.24
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Liam Fisher

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Digl Dixon (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Collins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Max Middleton (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan Luey (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Joshua Hayes (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ross Collett (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.19
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.09
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.65
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R7	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.57

Christopher Smith

dropped • 3-4-0

14%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.9

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs CYK Lionel (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Braiden Burne (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 49:51

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tom Debney (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Luke Siriwardene (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Clark (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Dave Laffan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jake mccormack (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

14% (1/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.29
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.68
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.95
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.