Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Calling: Auckland 2025

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Anthony O’Hara

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.8

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Anthony Ouellet (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 22:78

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mickail Lim (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 75:25

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David Smith (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Spencer Horton (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Angus Schuler (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ryan Williams (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jayden Allan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.12
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.74
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.67
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.30
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Liam Fisher

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Digl Dixon (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Collins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 75:25

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Max Middleton (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan Luey (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

15:85

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Joshua Hayes (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 14:86

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ross Collett (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.21
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.12
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R7	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Christopher Smith

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs CYK Lionel (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Braiden Burne (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tom Debney (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 24:76

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Luke Siriwardene (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Clark (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Dave Laffan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jake mccormack (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.67
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.68
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.