Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter at Battle Hardened: Lucerne 2025
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
13 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 7-2-0
100%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.3
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Lian Mintz (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Samuel Mudry (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Fabian Gerber (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 71:29
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Emile Simon (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 67:33
75:25
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Joachim Hendriksen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 75:25
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Viet Pham (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Kevin Steiger (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 67:33
75:25
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Ralph Schlauri (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 75:25
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Enes Findik (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
100% (9/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R9 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
5th • 6-2-0
75%
Meta
+1.7
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Kai Martin (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kevin Steiger (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 67:33
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Marc Lanigra (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Lars Seebacher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60
75:25
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Konrad Weiss (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 75:25
Round 6: Win vs Johannes Schorpp (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Vincent Weinzierl (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Viet Pham (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
11th • 5-2-0
43%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.5
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Florian Badertscher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60
Round 2: Win vs Marc Scheerer (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Lars Seebacher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Patrick Urfer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 48:52
Round 5: Win vs Jonas Schütze (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Vincent Weinzierl (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 56:44
80:20
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Markus Heimbeck (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 80:20
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 80% | Win |
35th • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.9
Diff
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs William Rao (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 79:21
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Johannes Schorpp (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 37:63
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Florian Badertscher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Yves Meienberg (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Lian Mintz (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 71:29
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Giulio Monaco (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Laura Sterkenburg (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
38th • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
3.7
Surp
1.4
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Urs Riedweg (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60
Round 3: Loss vs gabriele paletti (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Samuel Mudry (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Stefan Bonk (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
75:25
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Elija Ibig (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 77:23
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Thierry Bonard (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 75% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
39th • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
3.3
Surp
0.8
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Gabriel Meier (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Lorenzo Paino (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Patrick Urfer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 48:52
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Sebastian Valls Reinecke (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 37:63
Round 5: Loss vs gabriele paletti (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jonathan Tolno (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 38:62
80:20
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs William Rao (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 79:21
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 80% | Win |
45th • 2-5-0
29%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
3.0
Surp
0.6
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Thierry Bonard (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 38:62
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Simon Lüthi (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Andrea Santoro (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 71:29
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Lisa-Marie Schulte (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 37:63
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Marc Lanigra (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Angus Sünner (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Simone Marro (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.9
Surp
2.1
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Steiger (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Kim Scheerer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Andrea Colombo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 80:20
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Thibault Taccone (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Giulio Monaco (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Simone Marro (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
80%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Patrick Paitz (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kevin Jenni (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Sander Neeft (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Lancelot Errico (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 38:62
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Fabian Brust (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
80%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Marco von Holzen (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs André Kofmel (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Friedemann Schorpp (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kai Martin (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
Round 5: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-1
80%
Meta
-2.0
Perf
3.2
Surp
0.3
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Lisa-Marie Schulte (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Maxence Cornut (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 3: Loss vs STEPHANE LE ROY (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Draw vs Nico Grieco (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 77:23
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Oliver Gehrig (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 80% | Loss |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 75% | Draw |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.3
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Marc Scheerer (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 38:62
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Florian Badertscher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Elija Ibig (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 77:23
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Thierry Bonard (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.1
Surp
0.1
Diff
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Markus Heimbeck (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 80:20
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Marc Lanigra (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Patrik Koller (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.