Ira, Scarlet Revenger at Battle Hardened: Lucerne 2025
Ira, Scarlet Revenger
9 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
14th • 5-2-0
29%
Meta
+2.1
Perf
3.5
Surp
3.3
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Ernst Füllemann (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Round 2: Win vs Joachim Hendriksen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ludovic Zgajner (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Johannes Schorpp (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 36:64
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Angus Sünner (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Kevin Wülser (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Giulio Monaco (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Win |
16th • 5-2-0
43%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
3.4
Surp
3.3
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Lars Seebacher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62
Round 2: Win vs Ernst Füllemann (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kevin Jenni (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Alexandre Varone (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 5: Win vs Christian Hammer (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Simone Paterniti (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 40:60
80:20
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Emile Simon (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 79:21
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Jarl Vetreiði | 80% | Win |
25th • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.9
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Mario De Stefano (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 60:40
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Vincent Weinzierl (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 20:80
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Thierry Bonard (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Markus Heimbeck (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Samuel Mudry (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs sylvain verdet (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Frederic Fuessmann (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 20% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Loss |
28th • 4-3-0
29%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.2
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jonathan Tolno (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Tigran Grigorian (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jonas Schütze (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Simone Paterniti (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 40:60
75:25
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Sandro Hugger (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 77:23
Round 7: Win vs Joachim Hendriksen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 75% | Win |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
31st • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Laura Sterkenburg (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Nolan Varone (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Simon Lüthi (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Thomas G Jud (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Frederic Fuessmann (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Fabian Brust (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Andrea Santoro (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
40th • 3-4-0
29%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Lancelot Errico (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Damien CHINIARD (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Xavier Mudry (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 36:64
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Julia Brown (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Kevin Wülser (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Samuel Mudry (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Fabian Brust (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 55% | Win |
dropped • 4-2-0
33%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
3.0
Surp
3.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Konrad Weiss (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs William Rao (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 50:50
Round 3: Win vs Nolan Varone (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Patrik Koller (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 5: Win vs STEPHANE LE ROY (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.3
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Fabian Gerber (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Viet Pham (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 40:60
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Michael Gut (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
67%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Yves Meienberg (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 31:69
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Fabian Brust (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Angus Sünner (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.