FaB-Results

Arakni, Marionette at Battle Hardened: Lucerne 2025

Arakni, Marionette

Arakni, Marionette

2 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Nico Schleier
dropped • 3-2-0
60%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.7
Surp
2.4
Diff
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
!!
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Andrea Santoro (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset
Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Christian Hammer (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
Katsu, the Wanderer
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Mario De Stefano (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Patrick Paitz (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Damien CHINIARD (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
Yves Meienberg
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.1
Diff
Ira, Scarlet Revenger
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Simon Lüthi (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Lancelot Errico (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Lisa-Marie Schulte (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs sylvain verdet (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56

Legend

Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
Minor Surprise (10-19%)
!!
Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.