Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
13th • 5-2-0
86%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.8
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Lorenzo Paino (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Julia Brown (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Yves Meienberg (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Fabian Brust (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Kai Martin (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Chang Li (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs gabriele paletti (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Win |
17th • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Nolan Varone (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs sylvain verdet (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Enes Findik (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 48:52
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Frederic Fuessmann (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Sebastian Valls Reinecke (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 6: Loss vs Sander Neeft (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs David Rotter (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Loss |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
37th • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jonas Schütze (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Nico Schleier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Julius Otte (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 57:43
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Florian Badertscher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Patrik Koller (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Friedemann Schorpp (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs STEPHANE LE ROY (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.6
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Kevin Wülser (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Lars Seebacher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Simone Marro (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Michael Gut (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jonathan Tolno (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs gabriele paletti (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 1-5-0
67%
Meta
-2.2
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.0
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Frederic Fuessmann (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Patrik Koller (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Julia Brown (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan Tolno (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
Round 5: Loss vs Aaron Heimbeck (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs None (Unknown)
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
80%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Sandro Hugger (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ludovic Zgajner (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Simone Paterniti (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 48:52
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Maxence Cornut (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Johannes Schorpp (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.