Florian, Rotwood Harbinger at Battle Hardened: Lucerne 2025
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
22nd • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.0
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Jenni (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 20:80
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Oliver Gehrig (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 60:40
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Gabriel Meier (Dash I/O) - Expected: 76:24
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Giulio Monaco (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 65:35
Round 5: Loss vs Vincent Weinzierl (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 83:17, favorite upset
85:15
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Andrea Santoro (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 83:17
20:80
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Diego Giacca (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 20:80
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 85% | Loss |
| R6 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 85% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 20% | Loss |
26th • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
4.1
Surp
2.9
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Vincent Weinzierl (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 83:17, favorite upset
Round 2: Win vs Elija Ibig (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory
Round 3: Win vs Lorenzo Paino (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory
80:20
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs gabriele paletti (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 81:19
Round 5: Loss vs Alexandre Varone (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jonas Schütze (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Christian Hammer (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 85% | Loss |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 20% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 20% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Win |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
dropped • 3-3-0
33%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.8
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Aaron Heimbeck (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Sebastian Valls Reinecke (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Frederic Fuessmann (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 65:35
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Chang Li (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 20:80
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Michael Gut (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Konrad Weiss (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 20% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-5-0
17%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.1
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Chang Li (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 20:80
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Andrea Migliavacca (Dash I/O) - Expected: 76:24
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Christian Hammer (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Kevin Wülser (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Julia Brown (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Marc Scheerer (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
17% (1/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nico Grieco (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 20:80
Round 2: Loss vs Simone Paterniti (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Samuel Mudry (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 20:80
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 20% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.