Kassai of the Golden Sand at Battle Hardened: Lucerne 2025
Kassai of the Golden Sand
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
9th • 5-2-0
14%
Meta
+2.4
Perf
3.9
Surp
4.1
Diff
Round 1: Win vs STEPHANE LE ROY (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 17:83, underdog victory
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Giulio Monaco (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 80:20
Round 3: Win vs Konrad Weiss (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Etienne BARIOULET (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72
Round 5: Win vs Markus Heimbeck (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 17:83, underdog victory
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Diego Giacca (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Sander Neeft (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
14% (1/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
4.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 15% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 15% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.