Verdance, Thorn of the Rose at Battle Hardened: Lucerne 2025
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
1st • 9-1-0
80%
Meta
+2.4
Perf
3.5
Surp
3.3
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Julia Brown (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
90:10
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Nico Grieco (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 88:12
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Emile Simon (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 78:22
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Vincent Weinzierl (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 72:28
75:25
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Marcel Eggimann (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 74:26
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Enes Findik (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42
90:10
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Chang Li (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 88:12
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Lars Seebacher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Viet Pham (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42
60:40
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Enes Findik (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
80% (8/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.4 Wins (6.6 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 90% | Win |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 75% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 90% | Win |
| R8 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R9 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R10 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
5th • 6-2-0
50%
Meta
+2.0
Perf
4.0
Surp
3.4
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Thibault Taccone (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Andrea Santoro (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 78:22
Round 3: Loss vs Marcel Eggimann (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs André Kofmel (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 65:35
Round 5: Win vs Tigran Grigorian (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Alexandre Varone (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 65:35
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Lars Seebacher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56
25:75
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Kim Scheerer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 25:75
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
3.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 75% | Loss |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Win |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
18th • 4-2-1
57%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.5
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Simone Paterniti (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jonas Schütze (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Marco Lauria (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 65:35
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Xavier Mudry (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Ludovic Zgajner (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Lars Seebacher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Draw vs Patrick Urfer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Draw |
21st • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.7
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Alexandre Varone (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 65:35
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Manuel Wachouschek (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42
Round 3: Loss vs Vincent Weinzierl (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs David Rotter (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Sander Neeft (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 25:75
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Ludovic Zgajner (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jonathan Tolno (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
33rd • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
3.2
Surp
0.8
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Stefan Bonk (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Round 2: Loss vs Frederic Fuessmann (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kevin Wülser (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
80:20
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Lian Mintz (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 78:22
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Kim Scheerer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 25:75
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs David Rotter (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56
Round 7: Loss vs André Kofmel (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 80% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Johannes Schorpp (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Angus Sünner (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 65:35
Round 3: Loss vs Alexandre Varone (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Patrick Jud (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Round 5: Loss vs Andrea Santoro (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 80% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.