Rhinar, Reckless Rampage at Battle Hardened: Lucerne 2025
Rhinar, Reckless Rampage
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.5
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Marcel Eggimann (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jonathan Tolno (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 47:53
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Viet Pham (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 40:60
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Nolan Varone (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.