Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X at Battle Hardened: Lucerne 2025
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
2nd • 9-1-0
80%
Meta
+3.7
Perf
4.5
Surp
4.3
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Urs Riedweg (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Thierry Bonard (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Johannes Schorpp (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Marcel Eggimann (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 50:50
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Lars Seebacher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Etienne BARIOULET (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Viet Pham (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Chang Li (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Kim Scheerer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Etienne BARIOULET (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
80% (8/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
4.5 total deviation
Difficulty
4.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 40% | Loss |
3rd • 6-3-0
89%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
3.8
Surp
2.1
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Thomas G Jud (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 70:30
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Marco Lauria (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Patrick Jud (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 73:27
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jonas Schütze (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Chang Li (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Kim Scheerer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Enes Findik (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Sander Neeft (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Etienne BARIOULET (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
89% (8/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 40% | Loss |
36th • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.3
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Michael Gut (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58
Round 2: Win vs Andrea Colombo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Sebastian Valls Reinecke (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Marc Scheerer (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs André Kofmel (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Patrik Koller (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40
Round 7: Loss vs Kevin Wülser (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
83%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.2
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs gabriele paletti (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Markus Heimbeck (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 40:60
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Urs Riedweg (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34
Round 4: Loss vs Friedemann Schorpp (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Lorenzo Paino (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
Round 6: Loss vs Laura Sterkenburg (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
100%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Sander Neeft (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Stefan Bonk (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nico Grieco (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Lisa-Marie Schulte (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
100%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Patrick Paitz (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Damien CHINIARD (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Gabriel Meier (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34
Round 5: Loss vs David Rotter (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
75%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.6
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Andrea Migliavacca (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Konrad Weiss (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Marc Scheerer (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Kevin Steiger (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Marc Lanigra (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Marco von Holzen (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 3: Loss vs Lian Mintz (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Nico Schleier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.