Battle Hardened: Lucerne 2025 - Vynnset, Iron Maiden (CC)

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

gabriele paletti

24th • 4-3-0

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Oliver Gehrig (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 45:55

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Emile Simon (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 29:71

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Thibault Taccone (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs STEPHANE LE ROY (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Maxence Cornut (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Xavier Mudry (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Lisa-Marie Schulte (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

0% (0/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.16
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.72
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.69	1.21
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.95
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Friedemann Schorpp

46th • 2-5-0

14%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Rotter (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mario De Stefano (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 67:33

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Oliver Gehrig (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Andrea Migliavacca (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Christian Hammer (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Sandro Hugger (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

14% (1/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.16
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.65
R5	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Thomas G Jud

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Viet Pham (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sandro Hugger (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kevin Steiger (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 29:71

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Angus Sünner (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.69
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.