Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Battle Hardened: Lucerne 2025

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

gabriele paletti

24th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.3

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Oliver Gehrig (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Emile Simon (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Thibault Taccone (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs STEPHANE LE ROY (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 19:81

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Maxence Cornut (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Xavier Mudry (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Lisa-Marie Schulte (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.25
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Win	✗	0.76	0.87
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Win	✗	0.76	1.46
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.68
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Friedemann Schorpp

46th • 2-5-0

43%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Rotter (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mario De Stefano (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 24:76

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Oliver Gehrig (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Andrea Migliavacca (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Christian Hammer (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Sandro Hugger (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.98
R5	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Thomas G Jud

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.5

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Viet Pham (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sandro Hugger (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kevin Steiger (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Angus Sünner (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.