Dorinthea Ironsong at Battle Hardened: Lucerne 2025
Dorinthea Ironsong
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
41st • 3-4-0
86%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.7
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Sebastian Valls Reinecke (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46
Round 2: Loss vs Thomas G Jud (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Stefan Bonk (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Andrea Migliavacca (Dash I/O) - Expected: 58:42
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Marc Scheerer (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs André Kofmel (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Friedemann Schorpp (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 61:39
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.