Cindra, Dracai of Retribution at Battle Hardened: Lucerne 2025
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
9 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
20th • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.3
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Christian Hammer (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Michael Gut (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs André Kofmel (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Viet Pham (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63
Round 5: Loss vs Diego Giacca (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs STEPHANE LE ROY (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 66:34
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Florian Badertscher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 35% | Loss |
27th • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.6
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Xavier Mudry (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Fabian Gerber (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Joachim Hendriksen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Julius Otte (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 66:34
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Simone Marro (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Frederic Fuessmann (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45
Round 7: Win vs Simone Paterniti (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Win |
29th • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.0
Surp
2.0
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Fabian Brust (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 62:38
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Enes Findik (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Giulio Monaco (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ivan Bötschi (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 62:38
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Emile Simon (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Julia Brown (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Thibault Taccone (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 62:38
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
30th • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.3
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs André Kofmel (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Patrick Jud (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 31:69
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Aaron Heimbeck (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 57:43
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ernst Füllemann (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Xavier Mudry (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Maxence Cornut (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 62:38
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Konrad Weiss (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
32nd • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.7
Surp
3.1
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Angus Sünner (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Patrick Urfer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 52:48
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs David Rotter (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63
Round 4: Loss vs Andrea Santoro (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset
Round 5: Win vs Urs Riedweg (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
Round 6: Win vs Oliver Gehrig (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs sylvain verdet (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 62:38
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
42nd • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.2
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ivan Bötschi (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 62:38
Round 2: Loss vs Diego Giacca (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Manuel Wachouschek (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Simone Paterniti (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Sandro Hugger (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 37:63
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Julius Otte (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 66:34
Round 7: Win vs Elija Ibig (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Win |
47th • 2-5-0
100%
Meta
-2.0
Perf
3.5
Surp
0.8
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Etienne BARIOULET (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Lisa-Marie Schulte (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ernst Füllemann (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Simone Marro (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Julius Otte (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 66:34
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Thierry Bonard (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Aaron Heimbeck (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 55% | Loss |
49th • 2-5-0
57%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Patrick Urfer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Simone Marro (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Marco von Holzen (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Aaron Heimbeck (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Nico Schleier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
Round 6: Win vs William Rao (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Urs Riedweg (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 30% | Win |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
60%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.1
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Simone Marro (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Yves Meienberg (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Chang Li (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 34:66
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Marc Lanigra (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 62:38
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Kevin Steiger (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.