Battle Hardened: Minneapolis - Nuu, Alluring Desire (CC)

Nuu, Alluring Desire

40 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jeremiah Gardner

30th • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.3

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Justin Rowland (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 74:26

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ravi Sharma (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lucas Barding (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Garrett Shustarich (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 68:32

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nicholas Seman (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 40:60

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Daniel Winckler (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 71:29

75:25

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Matthew Feeney (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 74:26

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Bryce Stroyek (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.05
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.25
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.86
R6	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.39
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.38
R9	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Natalie Hunt

31st • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Duane Flier (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joseph Freeh (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Vore (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs SEAN STELL (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Feng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 34:66

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tanner Lee (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Vince Rothman (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.23
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.21
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.39
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.41
R7	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R9	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.61

Hazel Hensley

39th • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.1

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Higashi (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ed Bracamontes (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 34:66

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Aaron Williams (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 71:29

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joshua MacMillan (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Parker Sutton (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Seth Clark (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Nik Katebian (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Jerome Trujillo (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.16
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.29
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.43
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.57
R9	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.88

Duane Flier

40th • 6-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Natalie Hunt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Spescha (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alex Ptak (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tyler Barrett (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Steven Caraher (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Dakotah Kintigh (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Nicholas Mejac (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Zachary Suchomel (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Daniel Winckler (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.31
R5	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.41
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.50
R8	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.50

Zachary Suchomel

51st • 5-4-0

78%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

4.5

Surp

2.5

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs John McGovern (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 65:35

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sam Yuen (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Abraham Figueroa (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Grant Huddleston (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Shane Martin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Tristan Pisani-Blair (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Thomas Bray (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Duane Flier (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Noah Rolf (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.07
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.23
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.65
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.03
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R8	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.50

Luke Magnuson

53rd • 5-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Clair (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Maxwell Taylor (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tyler Goodridge (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nick Gabler (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Justin Rowland (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 74:26

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs nicklas starland (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Cody McCarron (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Kenn Johnson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (5.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.07
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.24
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.28
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R9	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.88

Seth Clark

55th • 5-4-0

89%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

4.5

Surp

3.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Barding (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs nicklas starland (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 74:26

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alexander Goldberger (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tyler Goodridge (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs John McGovern (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Hazel Hensley (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs SEAN STELL (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Ryan Levy (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.09
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.39
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.49
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.79
R9	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.55

Chris Brummett

62nd • 4-5-0

89%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

4.7

Surp

1.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Greenleaf (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jeremy Chen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mykel Kramer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Bray (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Austin Revera (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Brandon Akers (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Nik Katebian (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Tonin ''Nini'' Veshi (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs nicklas starland (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 74:26

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (5.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.34
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.29
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.34
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R7	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R9	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.43

Patrick Fowley

68th • 2-7-0

89%

Meta

-3.3

Perf

4.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alberto Ruiz (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Lester (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Thorin Thelen (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs nicklas starland (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Andrew Singleton (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 65:35

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs christian gilbert (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ben Swinford (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Tyler Barrett (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs SEAN STELL (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-3.3 Wins (5.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.34
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.50
R8	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R9	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Mark Johnson

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jonathen Byrd (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Ackley (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David M. Smith (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Franche Tan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Bryce Morgan (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Brandon Akers (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.19
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.26
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.50
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Nathanael Frautschy

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Wesley Burns (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lucas Barding (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tonin ''Nini'' Veshi (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Justin Bathgate (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Tad Kammeyer (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.11
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.38
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.50
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R6	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Dyllon Dietz

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sam Yuen (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Brock (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Austin Henry (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 68:32

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Levy (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 34:66

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nick Gabler (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Devin McAtee (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.28
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.74
R6	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Hayden Jeanson

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.2

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs christian gilbert (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nathan Crawford (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ben Swinford (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Dakotah Kintigh (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Braxton Friend (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.26
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.43
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.51
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Colin Ross

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Marco Marcelli (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Cody McCarron (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Demetris Guzman (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Evan Ford (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.40
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.71
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Darin Voight

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Tickal (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ashelin Gadal (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Bailey Hilten (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jeremy Kruman (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 65:35

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Connar Bodoh (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.53
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.49
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-

David M. Smith

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.5

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chris Rowland (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alexander Goldberger (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mark Johnson (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Evan Dyck (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nicholas Mejac (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.12
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.35
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Joe Mastowski

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Rudin (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Kissel (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Chase Reiser (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Josh Martin (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jesse Hurt (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.47
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.07
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Luke Manship

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chase Reiser (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James Tague (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 74:26

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Marco Marcelli (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Shane Martin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tristan Pisani-Blair (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.16
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.17
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Robert Orr

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Charles Simmons (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jesse Kennon (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Winckler (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Abraham Figueroa (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.31
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.47
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R5	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Jared Wyce

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.1

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Salvatore Calderone (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Ptak (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Majin Bae (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dexter Phan (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nik Katebian (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.12
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Easton Douglas

dropped • 2-1-1

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Abraham Figueroa (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Zoey Gerstner (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 34:66

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jesse Hurt (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs Daniel Johnson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.18
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.16
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Draw	✓	0.51	-

Caleb Womack

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Tickal (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Noah Rolf (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Merrick Kemp (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.15
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.61

Christopher Spescha

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.8

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alex Malave (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Duane Flier (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Eric Lee (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.02

Ian Siczewicz

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Arthur Mills (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jesse Kennon (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kyle Johnson (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

JONATHAN HENLEY

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 34:66

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Fischer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Cameron Robbins (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.44
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.92

Lee Kimball

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joseph Herbert (Unknown)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Trenton McBride (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tyler Brotton (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Arjun Garg (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.31
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Eric Wilson

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Singleton (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dominic Smith (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Zackary Whitt (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs AUSTIN BRILL (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.15
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Ashelin Gadal

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs francisco guerrero (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Darin Voight (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Keenan Humphrey (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Carlos Cruz

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Taylor Nifong (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 65:35

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joshua Rath (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tad Kammeyer (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.20
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Cole Love

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gabriel Torres (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 40:60

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dylan Ehalt (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 71:29

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.32
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Colin Swisher

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dylan Grytness (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Clifford (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.29
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Jack Sandau

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs AUSTIN BRILL (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Travis McDaniel (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 34:66

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Rutkowski (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.29
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Joe Santianna

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Johnson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tucker Gray (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs John McGovern (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.97
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Lucas Barding

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Seth Clark (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nathanael Frautschy (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremiah Gardner (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Roger Bodee

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Seman (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 34:66

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Mullis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 74:26

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Davis Purcell (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.28
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Rogue Theory

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs James Cæruleus Silver (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Evan Dyck (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Kissel (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Thor Hoffman

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Josh Martin (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Dahm (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Luke Hillard (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.43
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Will Earnhardt

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Fryar (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Wesley Burns (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Evan Ford (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.52
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Bryan Barger

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dominic Smith (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jasiel Diez (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Clay Smith

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dylan Myers (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Clifford (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.