Katsu, the Wanderer at Battle Hardened: Minneapolis

Katsu, the Wanderer

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Diana Green

dropped • 1-4-0

20%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Logan King (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tad Kammeyer (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Steven Caraher (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Singleton (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.71
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Sherman Darrenkamp

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.1

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Richard McMahon (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dylan Tucker (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.37
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.74
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

quintin ludtke

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yazan Masad (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tristan Pisani-Blair (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Logan King (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Austin Redington (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.29
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Aaron Williams

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Zachary Wallach (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kenn Johnson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 48:52

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Hazel Hensley (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Dylan Ehalt

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Youngquist (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 36:64

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Cole Love (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.