Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn at Battle Hardened: Minneapolis
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
22nd • 6-3-0
33%
Meta
+2.5
Perf
4.5
Surp
3.2
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Ethan Oechsle (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Evan Ford (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Seth Comstock (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
Round 4: Win vs Brian Lorenz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Matthew Feeney (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40
Round 6: Win vs Bryce Stroyek (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Michael Feng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 29:71
25:75
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 27:73
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
33% (3/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.5 total deviation
Difficulty
3.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Win |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 25% | Win |
| R7 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
| R8 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 25% | Loss |
| R9 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Loss |
28th • 6-3-0
56%
Meta
+1.8
Perf
4.3
Surp
2.9
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tristan Pisani-Blair (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 29:71
Round 2: Win vs Charles Poe (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Gabriel Torres (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Round 4: Win vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Matthew Gump (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Mara Faris (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
Round 7: Loss vs Wesley Dong (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
70:30
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Jacob Kissel (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32
25:75
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Nathan Crawford (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 27:73
Meta Fit
56% (5/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Loss |
| R8 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Win |
| R9 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 3-1-0
50%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
1.8
Surp
1.6
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Chris Waugh (Unknown)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Josh Johnson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ian Siczewicz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Oscar Ojeda Gomez (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 27:73
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
50%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Noah Rolf (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Round 2: Win vs Arjun Garg (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Higashi (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 27:73
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 25% | Win |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.7
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Anderson (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Taylor Stuhr (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.