Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Battle Hardened: Minneapolis
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
44th • 5-4-0
33%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
4.0
Surp
2.9
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Joshua DeHaan (Unknown)
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Timothy Long (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 36:64
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 26:74
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jake Torres (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Round 5: Win vs Tonin ''Nini'' Veshi (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Round 6: Win vs Austin Redington (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Braxton Friend (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 64:36
35:65
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Mykel Kramer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 36:64
35:65
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
33% (3/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 35% | Loss |
| R9 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
45th • 5-4-0
22%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
4.3
Surp
2.6
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Jasiel Diez (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Higashi (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 26:74
Round 3: Win vs Dylan Tucker (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Robert Orr (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs james Hoenstine (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Ferrara (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 26:74
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jeremiah Gardner (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Ryan Levy (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Duane Flier (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
22% (2/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 25% | Loss |
| R7 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R9 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
60th • 4-5-0
56%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
4.6
Surp
2.9
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ian Olson (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Gavin Myre (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Caleb Womack (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 44:56
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Nathan Crawford (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 26:74
Round 5: Loss vs Ryan Youngquist (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Nik Katebian (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
Round 7: Win vs Dakotah Kintigh (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Devon Killebrew (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Zachary Suchomel (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
56% (5/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 25% | Win |
| R8 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R9 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
50%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.9
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Franche Tan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 36:64
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Drew Peastrel (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47
Round 3: Win vs Vince Rothman (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 25% | Win |
| R4 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.8
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Zoey Gerstner (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs John Padavic (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 36:64
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nathaniel Brower (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Abraham Figueroa (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jonathan Pickens (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Devon Killebrew (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Patrick Nelson (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
50%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
0.8
Surp
0.0
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Bryce Stroyek (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 26:74
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Charles Simmons (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
50% (1/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.