Prism, Awakener of Sol at Battle Hardened: Minneapolis

Prism, Awakener of Sol

15 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Andrew Cook

3rd • 8-3-0

82%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

5.2

Surp

3.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nicolas Seegraves (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Cas Mulder (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ren Fisk (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Elly Bird (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tyler Brotton (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Andrew Rudin (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Alex Ptak (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

85:15

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Alexander Vore (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 84:16

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Michael Feng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Charles Dunn (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

82% (9/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.10
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.24
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.20
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.38
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.40
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.85
R8	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.18
R9	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R10	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.93
R11	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Kevin Murphy

36th • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Clifford (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bryce Stroyek (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Cole Love (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Steven Leyva (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Bird Cabrera (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 49:51

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Wesley Dong (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 23:77

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Keenan Humphrey (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 23:77

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jeremy Chen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Tanner Propst (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.09
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.47
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.57
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.91
R9	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.64

Logan King

66th • 3-6-0

78%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

4.6

Surp

1.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Diana Green (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Johnson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs quintin ludtke (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zachary Wallach (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Benjamin Clifford (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 58:42

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Austin Stanley (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Gavin Myre (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Nicholas Seman (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 49:51

25:75

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Rihanna LaGrou (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 23:77

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.08
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.25
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	25%	Win	✗	0.77	1.42
R7	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R9	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-

Pierre-Nicolas Perrin

dropped • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.9

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kenn Johnson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Ferrara (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Greenleaf (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 23:77

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ian Olson (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Zachary Knutson (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Oscar Ojeda Gomez (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Riley Lont (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Eric Pettinelli (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	25%	Win	✗	0.77	0.27
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.26
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.58
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.66
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.17
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Austin Redington

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Mejac (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Akers (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Samuel-Shane Cooper (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs quintin ludtke (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Devon Killebrew (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Tanner Propst (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.49
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.85
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Adam Fischer

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Trenton McBride (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Erick Avila (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs JONATHAN HENLEY (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs james Hoenstine (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Mykel Kramer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Johnson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.53
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.31
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

christian gilbert

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Thorin Thelen (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 84:16

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rihanna LaGrou (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 23:77

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jesse Hurt (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tyler Barrett (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Patrick Fowley (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.08
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.62

Barrett Goss

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jake Torres (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tyler Horspool (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ashley Briggs (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Maxwell Taylor (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Riley Lont (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.17
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.41
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.58
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Dylan Tucker

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.4

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nathan Dollman (Unknown)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Winckler (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

85:15

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Thorin Thelen (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 84:16

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.19
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Timothy Long

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Tran (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tanner Propst (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Eric Pettinelli (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Wesley Dong (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 23:77

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.18
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.25
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.53
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-

Andy Hong

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mara Faris (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bryce Platz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ben Swinford (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tad Kammeyer (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.00
R4	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jason Watkins

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Austin Revera (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs SEAN STELL (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dexter Phan (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alan Valdez (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.26
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Logan Reinert

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Sitrick (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 23:77

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs John McGovern (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gavin Myre (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Josh Johnson

dropped • 1-1-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Lester (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kyle Johnson (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (0.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Elizabeth Sprinkle

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Evan Ford (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.