Dorinthea Ironsong at Battle Hardened: Minneapolis

Dorinthea Ironsong

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Daniel Johnson

65th • 3-5-1

22%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joe Santianna (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Logan King (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 18:82

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs Easton Douglas (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Steven Leyva (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Adam Fischer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs nicklas starland (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

20:80

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Devon Killebrew (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 18:82

Meta Fit

22% (2/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.09
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.29
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Draw	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.87
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R9	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-

Charlton Smith

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Randall Sims (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Justin Rowland (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs francisco guerrero (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 80:20

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joshua Rath (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Maxwell Taylor (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.55
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.19
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Kyle Pollitz

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs James Tague (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Jones (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joseph Freeh (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.52
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.