Battle Hardened: Minneapolis - Kayo, Armed and Dangerous (CC)

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

27 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jacob Kissel

34th • 6-3-0

33%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

4.6

Surp

3.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tonin ''Nini'' Veshi (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joe Mastowski (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rogue Theory (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nathan Burns (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nathan Crawford (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Michael Berg (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Mara Faris (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Justin Kinison (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

33% (3/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.28
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.42
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.80
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R7	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.00
R8	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R9	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.88

Kenn Johnson

37th • 6-3-0

56%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

4.6

Surp

4.1

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Aaron Williams (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Chang (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joseph Freeh (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jesse Hinman (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs SEAN STELL (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Nathan Crawford (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Luke Magnuson (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Parker Sutton (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.21
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.30
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.47
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.58
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R8	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.12
R9	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.45

Matthew Greenleaf

41st • 5-4-0

44%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.7

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chris Brummett (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs francisco guerrero (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 49:51

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Travis McDaniel (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Charles Dunn (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Shane Martin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Oscar Ojeda Gomez (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Thomas Bray (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.14
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.23
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.13
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.49
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R8	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R9	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Rihanna LaGrou

52nd • 5-4-0

78%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nik Katebian (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs christian gilbert (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jerome Trujillo (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Justin Kinison (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Nathan Crawford (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs SEAN STELL (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Zackary Whitt (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Logan King (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.14
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.13
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.49
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.68
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R9	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.40

Keenan Humphrey

dropped • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Christopher Saldana (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ashelin Gadal (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Zackary Whitt (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Mara Faris (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Joseph Freeh (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Tad Kammeyer (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.11
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.47
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.44
R5	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.80
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.35
R8	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.65

Wesley Dong

dropped • 6-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.8

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Arjun Garg (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Cole Torres (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs John Padavic (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Yazan Masad (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 47:53

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Timothy Long (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Reese Toomre (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Charles Dunn (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.16
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.33
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.55
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.25
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.30
R7	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.23
R8	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Jonathan Magnuson

dropped • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Merrick Kemp (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Robert Orr (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mara Faris (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew W (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Tanner Lee (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.24
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.42
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R4	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.86
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R6	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Shane Martin

dropped • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Luke Hillard (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Justin Bathgate (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Goldberger (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Luke Manship (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Zachary Suchomel (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Greenleaf (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.15
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.44
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.84
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.05
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Austin Stanley

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Oren Yishai (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Zachary Stenstrom (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Lester (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Anderson (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

80:20

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Gavin Myre (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Logan King (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.29
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.88
R5	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-

Joshua Rath

dropped • 3-2-0

20%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.7

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alex Slotnick (Unknown)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Carlos Cruz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Charlton Smith (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.50
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.96
R5	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Randall Sims

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Charlton Smith (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Scott Weaville (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Franche Tan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Luke Hillard (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Alan Valdez (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.24
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.35
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.70
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

James Cæruleus Silver

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rogue Theory (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Taylor Nifong (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs James Tague (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Vore (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Brandon Akers (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.58
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.53
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Jonah Overholt

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Rihanna LaGrou (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Bryce Morgan (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Lester (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Hazel Hensley (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.18
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

David Sitrick

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.6

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Logan Reinert (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jodey Burney (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ravi Sharma (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.10
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.55
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Nathan Burns

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alan Valdez (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bryce Morgan (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brandon Stolzer (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Kissel (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.36
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Noah Beygelman

dropped • 2-2-0

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.7

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Oscar Ojeda Gomez (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Samuel-Shane Cooper (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Seth Clark (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Davis Purcell (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.72
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.94
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Wesley Burns

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nathanael Frautschy (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Will Earnhardt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jeremy Chen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Vince Rothman (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.82
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Chase Reiser

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Luke Manship (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ben Swinford (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joe Mastowski (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Brandon Stolzer

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Emery Powell (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Parker Sutton (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nathan Burns (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.37
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jesse Kennon

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ian Siczewicz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Robert Orr (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.29
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Benjamin Brock

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Ferrara (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joshua MacMillan (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Sam Yuen

dropped • 2-0-0

Meta

+1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

1.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dyllon Dietz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Zachary Suchomel (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (0.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.63
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.26

Scott Buljan

dropped • 1-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ashley Briggs (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Steven Caraher (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.65

Jason Mott

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Ackley (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 46:54

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Demetris Guzman (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Joshua Jones

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eric Pettinelli (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kyle Pollitz (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Andrew Magri

dropped • 1-0-0

Meta

+0.7

Perf

0.7

Surp

1.6

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Erick Avila (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (0.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.63

Justin Taylor

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

0.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Elly Bird (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.