Battle Hardened: Minneapolis - Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty (CC)

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

13 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Eric Pettinelli

14th • 7-2-0

67%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.9

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joshua Jones (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 46:54

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Levy (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Timothy Long (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Trenton McBride (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Parker Sutton (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 60:40

80:20

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 79:21

15:85

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 17:83

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Marco Marcelli (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.13
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.39
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.33
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.41
R6	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.23
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R8	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.72
R9	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.73

nicklas starland

67th • 3-6-0

33%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.9

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Riley Lont (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 44:56

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Seth Clark (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 26:74

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs AUSTIN BRILL (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Patrick Fowley (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ben Swinford (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 44:56

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Luke Magnuson (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 26:74

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tonin ''Nini'' Veshi (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

75:25

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Daniel Johnson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 77:23

25:75

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Chris Brummett (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

33% (3/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.87
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.66
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R8	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.34
R9	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Matthew Feeney

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Justin Kinison (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Connar Bodoh (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 65:35

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 60:40

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Bird Cabrera (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Bryce Henschel (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Ravi Sharma (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tyler Brotton (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

25:75

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jeremiah Gardner (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.09
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.16
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.28
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.88
R5	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.55
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R8	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Justin Rowland

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.4

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jeremiah Gardner (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 26:74

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Charlton Smith (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nicolas Seegraves (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 60:40

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kent Summerour (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 29:71

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Luke Magnuson (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.44
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Dylan Myers

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.7

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Clay Smith (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nathan Beni (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 79:21

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Elly Bird (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alex Ptak (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.49
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.17
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Joel Grizzelle

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Gump (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Zachary Stenstrom (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Patrick Nelson (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.55
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.04

Brandon Hartman

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Bathgate (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jonathen Byrd (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 79:21

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ed Bracamontes (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 29:71

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Steven Caraher (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.17
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

James Tague

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.1

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kyle Pollitz (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 77:23

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Luke Manship (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 26:74

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs James Cæruleus Silver (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Gavin Myre (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.09
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Dakota Cook

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alan Valdez (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

David Roger Jr.

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kent Summerour (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 29:71

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jared Smith (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Matthew Mullis

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Devin McAtee (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Roger Bodee (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	80%	Loss	✓	0.79	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Nicholas Tran

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Timothy Long (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 57:43

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Emery Powell (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Clark Jansen

dropped • 1-0-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

0.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bryce Platz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (0.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.73

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.