Ira, Crimson Haze at Sunday Showdown: Atlanta 2026

Ira, Crimson Haze

14 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Dexter Phan

1st • 9-2-0

100%

Meta

+2.8

Perf

5.0

Surp

3.9

Diff

Deck

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs John Bagi III (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Griffin Meyers (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Levia) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Halstad (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Casullo (Fai) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Levia) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Zachary Wallach (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

60:40

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Jacob Clements (Levia) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Mark Morrison (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Justin Michael (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

100% (11/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.8 Wins (6.2 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.18
R3	Silver Age	Levia	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.25
R5	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.32
R6	Silver Age	Levia	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.43
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.64
R8	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Levia	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.65
R10	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.64
R11	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.70

Abdul Mousa

5th • 6-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

4.4

Surp

2.2

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kyle Wallin (Fai) - Expected: 62:38

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs eric brandon (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Lucas Aquino (Levia) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Levia) - Expected: 58:42

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Clayton Dell (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Logan Stancil (Levia) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Mark Morrison (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

60:40

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Mark Morrison (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Levia	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R4	Silver Age	Levia	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Levia	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.53
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.54
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Justin Anthony

13th • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tyler Zeringue (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Bache (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Chris Kowalczyk (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Colton Nelson (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Andrew Maggert (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Levia) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Levia) - Expected: 58:42

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs CODY READY (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Levia	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.60
R7	Silver Age	Levia	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R8	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Alex Mihilli

15th • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.1

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Terrence Blackwell (Fai) - Expected: 62:38

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Robert VanDyke IV (Kayo) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs CODY READY (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jonathan Michaud (Hala) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Mark Morrison (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Wilborn (Hala) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Brandon Ross (Verdance) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Hala	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R6	Silver Age	Hala	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Adam Fronsee

20th • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.6

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Billy Uribes (Fai) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Halstad (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Levia) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Levia) - Expected: 58:42

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Hilleary (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Justin Michael (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Harrison Plott (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Alex Mihilli (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.18
R3	Silver Age	Levia	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.30
R4	Silver Age	Levia	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.40
R5	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.61
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Chris Kowalczyk

42nd • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Liam Donnelly (Unknown)

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Mark Morrison (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Justin Anthony (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Douglas Chapman (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 62:38

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Kaileb Shipman (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Lucas Aquino (Levia) - Expected: 58:42

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Austin Keith (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Charles Ligato (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.35
R5	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Levia	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.60
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Bryant Wilson

45th • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs James Wray (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Dustin LaMontagne (Kayo) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Arianna Arias (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Kyle Wallin (Fai) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tyler Zeringue (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Summer Martini (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Stephen Ford (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Ricky Linn (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.35
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.53
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Ricky Linn

47th • 3-5-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Charles Ligato (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tyler Goodridge (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Wilborn (Hala) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Lynch (Levia) - Expected: 58:42

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Sean Murray (Kayo) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Menion Croll (Fai) - Expected: 62:38

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Daniel Hanson (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Bryant Wilson (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Hala	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Levia	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.40
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.53
R7	Silver Age	Victor Goldmane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Christopher Bache

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Phillip Bradford (Levia) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Justin Anthony (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Alain Arduain (Fai) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Patrick Sumera (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Michael Hinson (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 62:38

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Colton Nelson (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Levia	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.58
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Sawyer Stalcup

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Anthony Murgolo (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Summer Martini (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 62:38

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tyler Goodridge (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Harrison Plott (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Halstad (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.28
R3	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Phillip Millwee

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Arianna Arias (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Michael King (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Philip Huang

dropped • 1-0-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

0.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Javier Gonzalez (Levia) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (0.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Levia	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.79

Christian Hopkins

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Casey Klein (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Justin Jones

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Cody Bavin (Fai) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.