Olympia at Sunday Showdown: Atlanta 2026

Olympia

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Andrew Hilleary

3rd • 9-1-0

100%

Meta

+4.0

Perf

5.0

Surp

4.5

Diff

Deck

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Luca Mitchell (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Jones (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Colton Nelson (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tyler Goodridge (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Raheel Khalid (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Mark Morrison (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Jacob Clements (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Andrew Wilborn (Hala) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R10

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Justin Michael (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (10/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.30
R4	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R6	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.70
R8	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R9	Silver Age	Hala	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.90
R10	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Alan Willenbring

24th • 5-2-1

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kristian Schnell (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Joe Santianna (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Draw vs Michael Hinson (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Colby Homan (Tuffnut) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs juniper dowell (Prism, Advent of Thrones) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Tyler Zeringue (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jeffrey Marmonti (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Logan Stancil (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Tuffnut	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Prism, Advent of Thrones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

CODY READY

21st • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.4

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Connor Bryant (Kayo) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Anthony Laflamme (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Alex Mihilli (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Summer Martini (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jesse Harper (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Sean Murray (Kayo) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Justin Anthony (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Chuck Ford

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs James Kavanaugh (Cindra) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jamal Salem Saedidaryan (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Nicolas Setser (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Robert Fulkerson (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Josh Chrvala (Hala) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Mason Laney (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Hala	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Lauren Hall

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Menion Croll (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kody Samaroo

dropped • 1-0-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Dana Valentine (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Kaleb Hackett

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Phillip Pelley (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.