Aurora at Sunday Showdown: Atlanta 2026

Aurora

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jesse Harper

23rd • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Delk (Kayo) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs charles singleton (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Josh Chrvala (Hala) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Menion Croll (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs CODY READY (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Anthony Laflamme (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Max Escaler (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Hala	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Clayton Dell

39th • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

0.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Hinson (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jun Pierson (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Sean Murray (Kayo) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Steven Powell (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Abdul Mousa (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Tyler Goodridge (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Michael King (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Alain Arduain (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mac Caldwell

dropped • 1-0-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jake Walker (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.