Azalea at Sunday Showdown: Atlanta 2026

Azalea

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jeffrey Marmonti

14th • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jennifer Hickman (Kayo) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Brandon Hartman (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs John Holland (Azalea) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jean Paul Negron (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Alain Arduain (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Alan Willenbring (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

John Holland

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jesse Carmack (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Stephanie Hine (Hala) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jeffrey Marmonti (Azalea) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Kelly (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Hala	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Joely English

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Cody Parish (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Chris Simpson (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Mark Morrison (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Justin Michael (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

John Bagi III

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Dexter Phan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Harrison Plott (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Douglas Chapman (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jacob Bader

dropped • 1-0-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Charles Sharretts (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Michael Watson

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Devine (Kayo) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.