Arakni, Solitary Confinement at Sunday Showdown: Atlanta

Arakni, Solitary Confinement

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Casey Klein

25th • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Christian Hopkins (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Nicolas Setser (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Wilborn (Hala) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Menion Croll (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Colby Homan (Tuffnut) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Phillip Pelley (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Brett Williamson (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Hala	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Tuffnut	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Chris Simpson

dropped • 1-1-0

100%

Meta

0.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jean Paul Negron (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Joely English (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Carlo Cuenca

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jamal Salem Saedidaryan (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.