Florian at Sunday Showdown: Atlanta 2026

Florian

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Phillip Pelley

31st • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kaleb Hackett (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Walter Snowden (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ty Murray (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Adam Hine (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Chip Chamberlin (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Casey Klein (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Jacob Kelly (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Brandon Hartman

dropped • 2-3-1

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Dayton Smallwood (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Draw vs Stephen Ford (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jeffrey Marmonti (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Zach Johnson (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Nicolas Setser (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Addison Woodward-Parrish (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Michael Holder

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kyle Proctor (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Lynch (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Zachary Wallach (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Lucas Aquino (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Anthony Murgolo

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Sawyer Stalcup (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.