Briar at Sunday Showdown: Hamburg 2026

Briar

31 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Matthias Hagel

3rd • 7-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

4.5

Surp

2.6

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs David Chirulescu (Lexi) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Sayan Srour (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Toni Schwarze (Fai) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Matteo Blasi (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Ariela Randriamasy (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Liam Holden (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Daniel Mulato (Fai) - Expected: 69:31

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Ognjen Marinkovic (Chane) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Florian Vanbrakel (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (5/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Fai	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.16
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R7	Silver Age	Fai	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.38
R8	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R9	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.69
R10	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Felix Krisch

5th • 7-2-0

56%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.4

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jonasemil Schmidt (Azalea) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ognjen Marinkovic (Chane) - Expected: 59:41

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jacqueline Holthausen (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Melvin Lemke-Detlefsen (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Christian Bach (Fai) - Expected: 69:31

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Tom Escoffier (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Matthias Verbeeck (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

70:30

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Toni Schwarze (Fai) - Expected: 69:31

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Florian Vanbrakel (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.43
R5	Silver Age	Fai	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.30
R6	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.80
R7	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.93
R8	Silver Age	Fai	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.48
R9	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Liam Holden

14th • 6-2-0

38%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.6

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Duggan (Fai) - Expected: 69:31

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jonathan Thiriet (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Dennis Ferber (Dromai) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ariela Randriamasy (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Michaele Teppa (Dromai) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Matthias Hagel (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Kevin Zänker (Dorinthea, Quicksilver Prodigy) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Matthias Verbeeck (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.27
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.44
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.73
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea, Quicksilver Prodigy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.20

Andreas Jacobsen

19th • 6-2-0

38%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Declan Macewan (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Emad Kashy (Oldhim) - Expected: 20:80

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tor Vorren (Fai) - Expected: 69:31

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Mirko Macchia (Enigma) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs cory macewan (Dromai) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Philippos Koulousakis (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Quest Pittman (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Michaele Teppa (Dromai) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.20
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.73
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.82
R7	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.86
R8	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.16

Joscha Amann

24th • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jakob Immer (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs cory macewan (Dromai) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Cato DIrdal (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tim Heibrok (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Matthew Duggan (Fai) - Expected: 69:31

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Florian Vanbrakel (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jurij Di Carlo (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.41
R7	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Dan Moldovan

33rd • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.5

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Aaron Beernaert (Dromai) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tino Mille (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Juho Hälli (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Andreas Reling (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Leonel Samayoa (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Mulato (Fai) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Laurens Overgaauw (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Quest Pittman (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Fai	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R7	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R8	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.99

Daniele Frattarelli

35th • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kristian Faber (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Patrick Hauser (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Franz Sawertal (Dash) - Expected: 80:20

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Melvin Lemke-Detlefsen (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Michaele Teppa (Dromai) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Callum McMurray (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Dash	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.12
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.73
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.09

Jean Luka Zorko

37th • 5-3-0

38%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.8

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Damien Mironoff (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Maike Reistel (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Mark Henderson (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Philippos Koulousakis (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Florian Vanbrakel (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Lexi) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Spencer Baker (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Melvin Lemke-Detlefsen (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.55
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Silver Age	Lexi	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.97

Eduard Cziszter

39th • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jurij Di Carlo (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Diana Triebnig (Fai) - Expected: 69:31

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Sander Neeft (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Stefan Fohs (Lexi) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Nikolai Goldmann (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Romain Lambert (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Przemysław Leszczyński (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Kevin Gehringer (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.45
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.72
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.95
R8	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.99

Andreas Reling

42nd • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.1

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas van Dijk (Dromai) - Expected: 45:55

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Mathis Reteuna (Fai) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ricardo Manrique (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Dan Moldovan (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jurij Di Carlo (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Patrick Hauser (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Callum Young (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Ioana Chirulescu (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Leonel Samayoa

49th • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Quest Pittman (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Przemysław Leszczyński (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jonas Benzarti (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 51:49

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Eliassen (Fai) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Dan Moldovan (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jurij Di Carlo (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Arne Walter (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Enigma) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.37
R4	Silver Age	Fai	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.27
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Ioana Chirulescu

54th • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.7

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Vincent Weinzierl (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kevin Zänker (Dorinthea, Quicksilver Prodigy) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Yorgos Samaras (Oldhim) - Expected: 20:80

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Maciej Chmielewski (Enigma) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Paul Beese (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Diana Triebnig (Fai) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Vitalik Steckis (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Andreas Reling (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea, Quicksilver Prodigy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.41
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tim Heibrok

56th • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.9

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Savinien Castel (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Werner Maier (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Christopher Dührkop (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Joscha Amann (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tom Tydecks (Chane) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Callum McMurray (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jonas Benzarti (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Falko Holzenhauer (Enigma) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R7	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.08

Robert Kiene

71st • 3-4-1

38%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.5

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Draw vs Falko Holzenhauer (Enigma) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs David Chirulescu (Lexi) - Expected: 37:63

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Alex Moulin (Dorinthea) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Szymon Wrzesień-Kwiatkowski (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Aaron Beernaert (Dromai) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Emmi Pelkonen (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Benjamin Lindenstrauß (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Markus Heimbeck (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Draw	✗	0.47	-
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.60
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.99

Spencer Baker

63rd • 3-5-0

62%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Timothy Worrall (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Matthias Verbeeck (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Maciej Chmielewski (Enigma) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Mikey Dwyer (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jakob Immer (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Maike Reistel (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Sebastian Kleiner (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jakob Immer

67th • 3-5-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Joscha Amann (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Julien Erdreich (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Quinn Aurich (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jacqueline Holthausen (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Spencer Baker (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Szymon Wrzesień-Kwiatkowski (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Maike Reistel (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Przemysław Leszczyński (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.36
R4	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.90
R7	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Nikolai Goldmann

dropped • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.1

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Derek Patterson (Hala) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Vincent Weinzierl (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Sayan Srour (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Eduard Cziszter (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Matthias Verbeeck (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Lexi) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Hala	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.51
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.62
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	Silver Age	Lexi	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Vitalik Steckis

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.7

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ognjen Marinkovic (Chane) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Gary White (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Robert Crone (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 51:49

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Steffen Gursinsky (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Nino Chimenti (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Sebastian Kleiner (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Ioana Chirulescu (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.42
R4	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Julien Erdreich

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.5

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Maxime Claveau (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jakob Immer (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Mikey Dwyer (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Patrick Hauser (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Rene Gropp (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Aaron Beernaert (Dromai) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.48
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Matteo Blasi

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Laura Nielsen (Unknown)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Mark Henderson (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Aurelien Souchet (Rhinar) - Expected: 78:22

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Matthias Hagel (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Kevin Gehringer (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Tristan Del Pako (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.18
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Christopher Dührkop

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alexej Vollmer (Dorinthea, Quicksilver Prodigy) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Michael Koch (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tim Heibrok (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Emad Kashy (Oldhim) - Expected: 20:80

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Stefan Karlsson (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jacob Joergensen (Rhinar) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea, Quicksilver Prodigy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R5	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-

Patrick Hauser

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Emmi Pelkonen (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Daniele Frattarelli (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Samed Demir (Enigma) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Julien Erdreich (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Dylan Thompson (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Andreas Reling (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.54
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Angelo Zaccardi

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Bernd Nielsen (Fai) - Expected: 69:31

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Toni Schwarze (Fai) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Corey Cruickshank (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kevin Gehringer (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Viet Phuong Ricardo Le (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Fai	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.58
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Benjamin Brüssau

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Nathaniel Payne (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Markus Heimbeck (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 51:49

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Diana Triebnig (Fai) - Expected: 69:31

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Falko Holzenhauer (Enigma) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Przemysław Leszczyński (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.87
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Nino Chimenti

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.9

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Philippos Koulousakis (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Thomas Valin (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kacper Sobieszczuk (Chane) - Expected: 59:41

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Duggan (Fai) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Vitalik Steckis (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.48
R3	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.46
R4	Silver Age	Fai	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

William Hightower

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Cato DIrdal (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Christian Bach (Fai) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Emmi Pelkonen (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Richard Kruithof (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 51:49

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Sebastian Kleiner (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.72
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nathaniel Payne

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Brüssau (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Romain Lambert (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Hamish Dean (Lexi) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Andrei Sebastian Suciu

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Enigma) - Expected: 47:53

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Manu Van Driessche (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Maxime Forest (Oldhim) - Expected: 20:80

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-

Klas Bergholtz

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Juho Hälli (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Mihai Zorila (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Michał Biernacki (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

René K

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Zänker (Dorinthea, Quicksilver Prodigy) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Quest Pittman (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Will Melyn (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea, Quicksilver Prodigy	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kristian Faber

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Daniele Frattarelli (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tristan Del Pako (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.