Enigma at Sunday Showdown: Hamburg 2026

Enigma

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Maciej Chmielewski

17th • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.4

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sander Neeft (Oscilio) - Expected: 69:31

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Dennis Ferber (Dromai) - Expected: 21:79

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Spencer Baker (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ioana Chirulescu (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Matthias Verbeeck (Oscilio) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Timothy Worrall (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 64:36

30:70

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Niklas Wunsch (Rhinar) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

70:30

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Tom Escoffier (Oscilio) - Expected: 69:31

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.34
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.48
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.52
R8	Silver Age	Oscilio	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.53

Timo Cullmann

34th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.4

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Henry Wiesner (Dromai) - Expected: 21:79

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Emmi Pelkonen (Oscilio) - Expected: 69:31

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Mark Bisschops (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Daja Todesco (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Tristan Del Pako (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 64:36

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Oscilio) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

25:75

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Toni Schwarze (Fai) - Expected: 23:77

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Jacob Smith (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.13
R3	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.40
R6	Silver Age	Oscilio	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R8	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jeremy Miller

38th • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.5

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Andrei Sebastian Suciu (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Callum Young (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Steffen Gursinsky (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Gary White (Oscilio) - Expected: 69:31

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tom Escoffier (Oscilio) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Michaele Teppa (Dromai) - Expected: 21:79

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Alex Moulin (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Leonel Samayoa (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.26
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.91

Falko Holzenhauer

64th • 3-4-1

88%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.6

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Draw vs Robert Kiene (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Vincent Weinzierl (Oscilio) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Patrick Kaiser (Oscilio) - Expected: 69:31

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Benjamin Brüssau (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Samed Demir (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jacqueline Holthausen (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

30:70

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jacob Joergensen (Rhinar) - Expected: 30:70

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Tim Heibrok (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Draw	✓	0.53	-
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.20
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Mirko Macchia

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ricardo Manrique (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

90:10

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Declan Macewan (Iyslander) - Expected: 92:8

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Henry Wiesner (Dromai) - Expected: 21:79

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Andreas Jacobsen (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs David Chirulescu (Lexi) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	90%	Win	✓	0.08	0.05
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.73
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Samed Demir

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Daja Todesco (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Juho Hälli (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Patrick Hauser (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs cory macewan (Dromai) - Expected: 21:79

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Falko Holzenhauer (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.