Iyslander at Sunday Showdown: Hamburg 2026

Iyslander

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Melvin Lemke-Detlefsen

51st • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.3

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Thomas Lukaszewicz (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 70:30

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Maxime Claveau (Oscilio) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ognjen Marinkovic (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Felix Krisch (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Declan Macewan (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Daniele Frattarelli (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Goele Nuyts (Dromai) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	20%	Win	✗	0.81	0.60
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.04
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Mikey Dwyer

62nd • 3-5-0

88%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tristan Del Pako (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Laurens Overgaauw (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Julien Erdreich (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Spencer Baker (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Robson Dechamps (Dromai) - Expected: 44:56

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Rob van der Burgh (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Francesco D'Amendola (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Kacper Sobieszczuk (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.52
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.75
R6	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Declan Macewan

70th • 3-5-0

62%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Andreas Jacobsen (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

10:90

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Mirko Macchia (Enigma) - Expected: 9:91

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Lindenstrauß (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Markus Heimbeck (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Melvin Lemke-Detlefsen (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Thomas Valin (Oscilio) - Expected: 19:81

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Diana Triebnig (Fai) - Expected: 42:58

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Maike Reistel (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	10%	Loss	✗	0.09	-
R3	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Oscilio	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R8	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Quinn Aurich

76th • 2-5-1

88%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tom Tydecks (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Draw vs Benjamin Lindenstrauß (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jakob Immer (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Manu Van Driessche (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Robert Crone (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Markus Heimbeck (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 52:48

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs None (Unknown)

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs cory macewan (Dromai) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	Silver Age	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Corey Cruickshank

dropped • 2-5-0

71%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.6

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Viet Phuong Ricardo Le (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Rob van der Burgh (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Angelo Zaccardi (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Sebastian Kleiner (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Thomas van Dijk (Dromai) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Goele Nuyts (Dromai) - Expected: 44:56

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Kacper Sobieszczuk (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Maximilian Schmidt

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Felix Ebert (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Robert Crone (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 52:48

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Rene Gropp (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Paul Beese (Oscilio) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Joakim Fugelli

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.2

Perf

0.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tom Escoffier (Oscilio) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (0.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.