Bravo, Flattering Showman at Sunday Showdown: Hamburg 2026

Bravo, Flattering Showman

13 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Rene Gropp

11th • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Smith (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Eliassen (Fai) - Expected: 55:45

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Maximilian Schmidt (Iyslander) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Mark Henderson (Oscilio) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Julien Erdreich (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Juho Hälli (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Ariela Randriamasy (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Florian Vanbrakel (Oscilio) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.62
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.84
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.55
R6	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Ariela Randriamasy

23rd • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.6

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Bidinger Mikael (Fai) - Expected: 55:45

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tomasz Buda (Dromai) - Expected: 80:20

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Philippos Koulousakis (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Liam Holden (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Matthias Hagel (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

30:70

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Oscilio) - Expected: 31:69

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Rene Gropp (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.08
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.55
R6	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Callum McMurray

48th • 4-3-1

62%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Niklas Wunsch (Rhinar) - Expected: 44:56

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Niklas Astner (Dromai) - Expected: 80:20

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Quest Pittman (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 41:59

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Thomas Valin (Oscilio) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Maxime Forest (Oldhim) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Tim Heibrok (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

80:20

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Draw vs Aaron Beernaert (Dromai) - Expected: 80:20

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Daniele Frattarelli (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.08
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.84
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.40
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.66
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	80%	Draw	✓	0.80	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Przemysław Leszczyński

57th • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Derek Patterson (Hala) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Leonel Samayoa (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Rob van der Burgh (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Benjamin Brüssau (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

30:70

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Andreas Reuter (Dorinthea) - Expected: 31:69

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Eduard Cziszter (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Jakob Immer (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Hala	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.55
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.88

Philippos Koulousakis

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.8

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nino Chimenti (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jacqueline Holthausen (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ariela Randriamasy (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Sayan Srour (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Andreas Jacobsen (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

30:70

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Thomas Valin (Oscilio) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Win	✗	0.69	1.68

Tristan Del Pako

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.7

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Mikey Dwyer (Iyslander) - Expected: 32:68

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kristian Faber (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Thomas van Dijk (Dromai) - Expected: 80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Kevin Zänker (Dorinthea, Quicksilver Prodigy) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Timo Cullmann (Enigma) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Matteo Blasi (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Tom Tydecks (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.14
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea, Quicksilver Prodigy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Viet Phuong Ricardo Le

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.3

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Corey Cruickshank (Iyslander) - Expected: 32:68

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Patrick Kaiser (Oscilio) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Stefan Karlsson (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Maxime Claveau (Oscilio) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Angelo Zaccardi (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Thomas van Dijk (Dromai) - Expected: 80:20

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jurij Di Carlo (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.48
R3	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.96
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.63
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.28
R7	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Timothy Worrall

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Spencer Baker (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jonathan Thiriet (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tom Escoffier (Oscilio) - Expected: 31:69

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Hamish Dean (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Maciej Chmielewski (Enigma) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	Silver Age	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.49
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Sayan Srour

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.3

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Niklas Astner (Dromai) - Expected: 80:20

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Matthias Hagel (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Marc Paulsen (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Nikolai Goldmann (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Philippos Koulousakis (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Alex Moulin (Dorinthea) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.29
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Damien Mironoff

dropped • 0-6-0

50%

Meta

-2.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs André Kofmel (Oscilio) - Expected: 31:69

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Joergensen (Rhinar) - Expected: 44:56

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Patrick Kaiser (Oscilio) - Expected: 31:69

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Bernd Nielsen (Fai) - Expected: 55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Benjamin Lindenstrauß (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R6	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jonathan Thiriet

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Manu Van Driessche (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Liam Holden (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Timothy Worrall (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Sander Neeft (Oscilio) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Łukasz Schok

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Callum Young (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Mulato (Fai) - Expected: 55:45

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Dylan Thompson (Oscilio) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Thomas Lukaszewicz

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.7

Perf

0.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Melvin Lemke-Detlefsen (Iyslander) - Expected: 32:68

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Richard Kruithof (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (0.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.